Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for the Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels college basketball matchup.
Closing down tonight’s college basketball action, the Santa Clara Broncos face off with the Saint Mary’s Gaels.
This is the second matchup between these two West Coast Conference teams this season. They faced off for the first time on January 17, which resulted in a 62-54 Santa Clara victory. These two teams sit in the top three seeds in the WCC, with Gonzaga holding the top spot.
Looking at the odds, Saint Mary’s enters as a 5.5-point favorite with -265 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Santa Clara holds +215 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 153.5 points.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s prediction, preview
The Santa Clara Broncos hold a 23-6 record on the season and have gone 14-2 in conference play. They enter this matchup with a victory over San Francisco in the previous game and have won 10 of their last 11. Their losses have come against Gonzaga (twice), Saint Louis, New Mexico, Arizona State, and Loyola Chicago. On the season, Santa Clara has gone 16-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 19 of their 28 qualifying games. Its opening matchup of the season against Humboldt State did not offer odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Herb Sendek’s squad is scoring 84.0 points per game, which ranks 28th among D1 teams. The Broncos also rank 38th in offensive rating, 52nd in field goal percentage, 169th in three-point percentage, and 27th in three-point attempts per game. Santa Clara is holding opponents to 72.0 points per game, which ranks 125th out of the 365 qualifying teams. The Broncos also rank 67th in defensive rating, 226th in opponent field goal percentage, and 124th in opponent three-point percentage.
Christian Hammond leads the team in scoring with 16.4 points per game. He also adds 3.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Elijah Mahi adds 14.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, while Allen Graves is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.1 points, along with a team-high 6.6 rebounds and shooting 40% on three-point attempts. Aleksander Gavalyugov, Bukky Oboye, Brenton Knapper, and Jake Ensminger also play notable roles in the rotation.
Saint Mary’s holds a 25-4 record on the season and is 14-2 in conference play. The program enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak, with its last loss coming on January 31st. The Gaels’ four losses have come against Vanderbilt, Boise State, Santa Clara and Gonzaga. On the season, Saint Mary’s is 18-10 against the spread, with no odds offered for the matchup with DII UC Merced, and the game total is 12-16 to the over/under.
Paulius Murauskas headlines the production with 19.0 points per game, along with 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Joshua Dent adds 13.2 points and 5.7 assists while leading the conference with 36.0 minutes per game. Mikey Lewis is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 13.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Andrew McKeever pulls down a WCC-leading 9.2 rebounds per game along with his 8.6 points, while Dillan Shaw, Liam Campbell, Harry Wessels and Tony Duckett round out most of the notable rotation.
Saint Mary’s scores 78.4 points per game, which ranks 126th in the country. They also rank 50th in offensive rating, 110th in field-goal percentage, 14th in three-point percentage and 26th in rebounds per game. On the other end, the Gaels are holding opponents to the seventh-fewest points at 64.3 per contest. They rank 17th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and 28th in opponent three-point percentage.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s pick, best bet
Santa Clara picked up a 62-54 victory in the first matchup between these two teams. The Broncos covered the 1.5-point spread, and the game total fell well under the 152.5 line. It was a wire-to-wire victory by Santa Clara in which both teams struggled to shoot the ball. The Broncos shot just 41% from the field and 21% on three-point attempts. However, the Gaels had even greater struggles, shooting 31% from the field and 18% on three-point attempts.
These are two of the top teams in the WCC, and this is a matchup both sides will be ready to bring their best effort to. My lean is toward the under to cash again tonight, with both teams making their opponent earn every single point. But I am backing Saint Mary’s to even up the season series and cover the 5.5-point spread.
The Gaels have been better at home this season, going 10-4 against the spread in these matchups. They also are 16-9 ATS as a favorite and 14-3 ATS when playing on equal rest, which will be the case tonight. The 54 points that Saint Mary’s was limited to in the first game were the fewest points the Gaels have scored all season. Their next-lowest mark in a game was 63, and that came with the worst shooting percentage from the field and beyond the three-point line all season. Santa Clara deserves credit for this, but has not proven to produce this level of defensive impact on a consistent basis. This was the third-fewest points that Santa Clara had allowed all year, with only Louisiana and Cal Poly Humboldt scoring fewer.
Expect a better effort from Saint Mary’s in the second matchup and for the Gaels to play closer to the standard they have established all season. Both teams have a 14-2 conference record on the season, and this matchup will almost certainly decide who finishes second in the conference. Saint Mary’s is the better overall team and will be ready to put forth a focused effort to prove this. The Gaels’ loss to Santa Clara in the previous matchup is the worst they have looked all season, and they have won eight of their last nine since this point. They are far better than they showed in the first matchup and will be ready to prove this tonight.