Projections for 2026 Phoenix Raceway spring race

The data has been analyzed ahead of Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and if the metrics suggest one thing in particular, it is this: expect the usual suspects to race up front in the desert.

Saturday’s qualifying session proved just that, with Team Penske’s Joey Logano — a four-time Phoenix winner — capturing the Busch Light Pole Award. And while Racing Insights believes the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion will leverage that starting position into a top-five result, back-to-back Phoenix spring winner Christopher Bell is predicted to finish atop the field to claim the triumph once more. Here is how the rest of the field stacks up heading into the 1-mile Arizona contest on Sunday.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: The defending champion — who claimed the 2025 crown at this very track barely four months ago — has to be one of the leading contenders, and not just because of that particular tidbit. Larson was one of only five drivers to finish inside the top 10 in both 2025 Phoenix races and was the only driver to finish inside the top five in both contests. Larson’s 216 laps led at Phoenix in the Next Gen era ranks sixth among all pilots, and his 9.25 average finish during that span additionally ranks third overall.

DANIEL SUÁREZ: A solid start to the 2026 season might very well continue in Phoenix, per the metrics, with the No. 7 Spire Motorsports driver projected to tally a top 10. Though Phoenix, statistically speaking, isn’t a particularly strong track for the Mexico native — with only four top-10 finishes in 18 Cup starts — there might be a different vibe this time around; Suárez logged the fastest speed during Saturday’s practice session and carried that over into qualifying. As such, he will start Sunday from fourth. Momentum is certainly on his side; Suárez’s 14.3 average finish so far ranks eighth among the full-time field.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: If there is a driver who might outperform his projected metrics at Phoenix, it could very well be Logano’s Team Penske teammate in Cindric. Though the model has him finishing 22nd, Cindric, like Suárez, brought a fast machine to the track on Saturday; Cindric tallied the fifth-fastest speed during practice and carried it over to qualifying, starting just outside the front row (third). Cindric’s 19 stage points collected thus far in 2026 are tied for sixth most, and for a driver currently 31st in the standings, every point matters. Could strategy be shaped around this approach, or will Saturday’s speed translate into Sunday and create something more?

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 STRAIGHT TALK WIRELESS 500 (3:30 P.M. ET, FS1)