Kenneth Gainwell can begin talking to teams about leaving the Steelers, which is a distinct possibility, today at noon. Following a career year, his market is likely as strong as it will ever be in his life. Even if Pittsburgh offered an above-fair-market deal for him, it would be wise to explore his options.
Steelers beat writer Ray Fittipaldo believes Gainwell’s options, in fact, will be quite robust—but the Steelers might pony up. After churning out over 1,000 efficient yards and 8 touchdowns, they don’t want to see him leave. But how much will they have to pay to keep him, while also paying Jaylen Warren north of $5 million?
“I’m guessing Gainwell, his market’s gonna be in that $7-8 million a year range”, Fittipaldo told Sportsline’s George Von Benko over the weekend. “He’s a third-down back, but he’s a really, really good third-down back. And the Steelers used him almost as a 1A to Jaylen Warren, so there’s a team out there that envisions a similar role for him. I could even see that go beyond $8 million, but I’m gonna say between $7 and $8 million for him. And I think the Steelers will consider that. If Gainwell comes back to the Steelers and says, ‘Hey, this is the number, can you match it?’, we’ll see if the Steelers want to match it”.
Personally, I can’t see Kenneth Gainwell getting $8 million a year, nor the Steelers matching it. Even with a robust running back market this offseason, that seems too high for a fifth-year breakout season. Gainwell didn’t just play well because he got more snaps. He played better than he ever did before, and it’s fair to question its sustainability.
The big move at running back so far ahead of free agency was the Jets franchising Breece Hall at $14,293,000. Nobody is going to come close to that number, however. Javonte Williams re-signed with the Cowboys on a three-year, $24 million contract, but is Kenneth Gainwell in that same range?
Running back-needy teams will have their choice this offseason. Some of the top names on the market this week include Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne, Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pacheco. Most of them are hitting free agency for the first time, with is not the case for Kenneth Gainwell.
In fact, the Steelers signed Gainwell for under $2 million last March as an unrestricted free agent. Hardly anybody was interested in him, which, granted, hindsight proved wrong. Last season, he rushed for 537 yards and 5 touchdowns on 114 carries and gained 586 yards with 3 touchdowns on 73 receptions. His 8 touchdowns tied the team lead, and his teammates voted him Steelers MVP.
While the Steelers should prioritize re-signing Kenneth Gainwell, they can’t ignore the price tag. If there is a team willing to pay him $8 million, should they really match that? We don’t even know if Mike McCarthy envisions using a player like him in the same mold. Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers got the most out of him, but will even Rodgers be back? And the big question is this: could he do again what he did last year? I am not betting $8 million on it.